- The Senate will begin debating the budget resolution, which includes reconciliation instructions to repeal the ACA. The reconciliation process can only be used to repeal provisions that have a fiscal impact, such as the individual and employer mandate penalties, ACA taxes, cost-sharing subsidies, etc. Provisions that don’t have a budget impact won’t be repealed.
- The Senate needs only 51 votes to pass the budget bill and there are 52 Republicans in the Senate; therefore, we assume repeal will pass the Senate and the House before the end of February.
- What we have known for weeks, and that is now becoming public, is that the replace effort will take some time. Even once a replace bill is put together, it will likely take three to four years to become fully effective. We have already started engaging in “replace” conversations as we want to ensure our point of view is considered as the replace package is being drafted.
Will voters be happy with immediate repeal as promised but no replacement? Once voters realize this effort will take years, will there be a backlash that change is not happening fast enough? These are the questions that House and Senate Republicans are now grappling with.